The first published work on creating speed-figures was E.W. } For example, Messier posted a 98 Beyer in his most recent race but also has a 103 on his resume, indicating a consistent high-level performer. Commentator, who once ran a 123 in his career, scored a 120 as a 7-year-old, possibly a record for a horse that old. You can throw out superlative after superlative. Taiba (+800) and Messier (+800) lead the group having posted 103s previously in Kentucky Derby Prep races. Anything can happen in a 20-horse race, but this is one example of consistent, positive past performances. Horseplayers without the Beyers would assume Destin was the quicker horse by about a length. (16-1) earned a 93 Beyer . Creating these figures is the result of a very complex process that involves mathematical formulas and judgment calls . Beyer Speed Figures earned by Messier (103) and Adare Manor (94) in their blowout victories yesterday at Santa Anita were the highest by male and female 3-year-olds, respectively, thus far in 2022. 60 Broad St. Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets: Will Texas Road Slump Continue? His 120 was the highest number recorded since Quality Road earned a 121 in 2011. 3-Year-Old Female Older Male Older Female. Your TDN download has begun. Call 7032375030 for more information. The number of horses to run at least a 95 BSF is equal in the past two Derbies at nine apiece. Typically, Kentucky Derby field horses post BSF around or over 90. In 1992, Beyer began making turf figures, which were made more accurate by his adjustment of the beaten-lengths chart, in which he uses the six-and-a-half furlong beaten-lengths chart for all races at that distance or longer, to reflect the nature of turf racing, where horses jockey for position most of the way, and then sprint home with almost all of their energy in reserve, making the competitive part of the race more akin to a sprint than to the race's actual distance. Below is the best and most recent BSF from each horse in the 2022 Kentucky Derby Field. Only four contenders in this year's prospective Derby field have a Beyer Speed Figure within five points of co-tops Taiba and Messier:Epicenter with a 102 and Zandon, Zozos and Simplification, each of whom have a 98 Beyer to their credit. While Flightline is expected to have a more complete campaign next year than he did this year, don't expect him to run seven or eight times. Timeform Ratings go a step further in trying to be both accurate and objective. Messier, Taiba and Epicenter have run the strongest of the horses in the field. Before you place your wagers on the Derby, you'll want the skinny on the horses. 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. 2022 Kentucky Derby Beyer Speed Figure Rankings For Every Horse. Beyer Speed Figures and TimeformUS Speed Figures are courtesy ofDaily Racing Form. The big step that I know for sure is that we want to get him stretched out, he said. This year, five colts already have surpassed a 102: Taiba, Mo Donegal, Early Voting, all with 111s to their credit, as well as Messier (108) and Zandon (103). Sure, there are some extremely talented horses in the Longines Classic division including, among others, Hill n Dale Metropolitan Handicap winner Flightline, Pegasus World Cup victor Life Is Good, and Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline winner Country Grammer, but Olympiad has cemented his status as a top contender and a budding star for owners Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, and LNJ Foxwoods. (Note that this speed figure was assigned before the numbers were published in the Daily Racing Form, so may not be included in some listings of the top speed figures. Simplification seems like the most likely horse to show up for the exotics. At Belmont Park, maiden special weight races for older horses have a par of 87. In horse racing, power ratings are generally called class ratings. }. They have come in quite a bit behind their competition, too, with next-lowest belonging to Barber Road. .tableizer-table td { His Beyer Speed Figure of 92 is only 4 points off the second best number. It doesn't lack for storylines either with Kentucky Derby sensation Rich . [8] It is noteworthy that Easy Goer's overall speed figures were substantially superior to principal rival Sunday Silence, despite Sunday Silence's slight three to one edge in their head-to-head races. Pars for Beyer Speed Figures represent the approximate average winning figure for a given class at a given track. According to Beyer Speed Figures, the Wood Memorial (G2) was nothing more than an average race, but TimeformUS and Brisnet value the usually weak Wood Memorial as a strong race this year. Play today with NYRA Bets! The figure may however be adjusted if the raw numbers are unusual based on the field's previous performances. Epicenter's effort in the Risen Star earned him a 98 Beyer and Brisnet. Just how fast is a certain crop of horses in the Kentucky Derby? Epicenter has just recently won the Risen Star stakes by about three lengths with a Beyer Speed Figure of 98 points. font-size: 12px; Messier's career high of 127 and Taiba's best of 125 top the field. [2] Flightline earned a 126 speed figure in winning the 2022 Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar Racetrack in 2022. Is Epicenter as much of a standout as he seems? This should be taken with a gain of salt, however, because Epicenter has shown the most consistency. The par for the same class at Thistledown is 59. Odds Shark does not target an audience under the age of 18. Comparatively, Rock Your World ran a 100-BSF, which paced the 2021 group. These numbers reflect the relative strength of different racing circuits. The Stephen Foster was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure for Olympiad in 2022. He's advising bettors to consider speed figures and track conditions prior to wagering. Making just his third lifetime start after very impressive wins in a Santa Anita maiden and a Del Mar allowance, Flightline was tested for class in the Malibu, and couldn't have passed any more easily. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball. Overall, the 2022 Kentucky Derby field looks generally faster than the 2021 field. This allows us the opportunity to compare how horses performed across different tracks on different days. The methodology has stood the test of time, though the availability of computer-generated data has enabled some refinements over the years.The calculation of figures is not a mechanical process. The Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes , t Hallandale Beach, Fla. Trainers always are searchi Before handicapping the Grade 2, $400,000 San Feli History (1875-2022 Derby Results & Videos), Breeders' Cup Super Screener - Expert Picks. Beyer Speed Figures favorEpicenter, and it is not very close. Young horses improve with time, typically at a rate of a point per month, so a par for 3-year-old $20,000 claimer could not be accurate in both January and December. While Beyer has also noted that "speed figures tell you how fast a horse ran in the past; they do not necessarily predict how it will run today," their use as a handicapping tool is premised on their ability to shed light on how a horse is likely to run in its next start. Medaglia dOro and A.P. Below well explore Kentucky Derby odds Beyer Speed Figure ratings. Below is a closer look at the career best Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Speed Figures for the North American contenders in the prospective 2022 Kentucky Derby field. Hence, their status as longshots. f: (732) 747-8955. font-weight: bold; A system for rating the performance of Thoroughbred racehorses in North America, Learn how and when to remove this template message, "Figure Makers: An Open Mind Rules The Beyer Method", "Flightline stunning as he runs away with Pacific Classic", "Overacheiver [sic] Cigar Had a Mark of Consistency", "Paulick Report Forum brought to you by Breeders' Cup: Talking Speed Figures with Beyer", "Best Bets: A handicapping history of the Breeders' Cup, Part 5 [Breeders' Cup]", "Commentator stands alone in Beyer history", "With a Combination of Speed and Class, War Pass Is Reminiscent of Seattle Slew", "Jerardi: Top Beyer Figures a thing of the past", "Frosted ran off the screen and to the top of the Beyer scale", "Overacheiver Cigar Had a Mark of Consistency", "American Pharoah's 120 erases any doubts", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Beyer_Speed_Figure&oldid=1115194621, Short description is different from Wikidata, Articles with unsourced statements from March 2015, Articles needing additional references from March 2015, All articles needing additional references, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 10 October 2022, at 07:24. This year, Taiba,Messier, and Epicenterboth have topped that mark. Jessica Morgan / Eclipse Sportswire. Kentucky Derby 2022: How do the speed figures stack up. The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Signup and get a $200 deposit bonus! They keep stressing do what's right for the horse. In the only . The Stephen Foster was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure for Olympiad in 2022. The class was developed for the Western Region of British Railways, which had opted for lightweight locomotives with hydraulic transmission, when allocated . If the top contenders in a Belmont MSW field regularly run in the 70s, the race may be a good spot for first-time starters or other entrants with no recent form. The lone outright winner to run under a 100 came in 2014 (California Chrome, 97). ** Get a $150 deposit match from AmWager + Daily Rewards**, Kentucky Derby prep: Gotham Stakes 2023 odds and analysis, Work tab: Cody's Wish drills for 1st time since Breeders' Cup win, Head to Head: Handicapping Fountain of Youth 2023, Romans wins weight battle, now looks to Fountain of Youth, Ky. Derby prep: 1 horse can beat Yakteen 5 in San Felipe. BSFs were created by Andy Beyer and are a system for rating the performance of horses in North America. .tableizer-table th { ** Get a $150 deposit match from AmWager + Daily Rewards**, Kentucky Derby prep: Gotham Stakes 2023 odds and analysis, Work tab: Cody's Wish drills for 1st time since Breeders' Cup win, Head to Head: Handicapping Fountain of Youth 2023, Romans wins weight battle, now looks to Fountain of Youth, Ky. Derby prep: 1 horse can beat Yakteen 5 in San Felipe, These 19 horses have Saturday's highest speed figures. We expect next year to go a lot different than this year because when you do right by a horse, you build a better product going forward. [23], As Beyer has noted, a speed figure is a numerical expression of a horse's final time, universalized for distance, track surface, and the daily variant on that surface. 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Final PGA TOUR Thoughts, Betting Card. The most exciting two minutes in sports doubles as a betting bonanza as well. I've got a good ownership group. Morello performed the worst last time out, surprisingly after winning his first three races. Going into last year's Kentucky Derby, the highest Beyer Speed Figure earned during the prep season was a 100 posted by Rock Your World when winning the Santa Anita Derby (G1). NEC Tournament Odds: Merrimack In A One-Horse Race? [4] Easy Goer and Sunday Silence both earned 124 speed figures in the 1989 Breeders' Cup Classic, which tied for the fastest speed figure earned in any Breeders' Cup race. Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) is a common metric used to handicap horse racing and contextualize how well a horse ran in a given race. Among those not at the top of the speed figure scale, only Creative Minister is worth giving a second look. A 90 at Saratoga is the same quality of performance as a 90 at the Ferndale Fair.Moreover, a figure of 90 in a six-furlong race is the same quality of performance as a 90 at 1 miles. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph. Flightline had already made headlines before his first career start, selling for $1 million at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale. }. On 2016s Derby trail, the top number was the 103 earned by Exaggerator in his victory in the Santa Anita Derby. Epicenter (+400) ran his own 102 BSF race in the Louisiana Derby (G2). The winner of the Kentucky Derby will likely run their best career race, but having a history of 100+ BSF helps predict such a performance. Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts. Obviously the racing surface at Tampa Bay Downs that day was playing slightly faster. She turned in one of the best Beyer Speed Figures of any 2-year-old in 2021, and her 92 Beyer in the Honeybee Stakes last month was considerably better than Un Ojo's 84 in winning the Rebel . Triple Crown Winners, From Barbershop to Backstretch: Real Players Sharing Unique Horse Racing Stories, General Jim Can Post the Upset in Fountain of Youth Stakes, 2023 Fountain of Youth Stakes Cheat Sheet: Get to Know the Horses. He later was disqualified for a drug overage and runner-up Mandaloun was promoted to the win. The popular rule of thumb for a rough equivalent of the Timeform score is to deduct 12-14 points to achieve the Beyer figure. As of 02.26.23. The best horses in the U.S. generally earn Beyer Speed Figures between 105 and 115. If speed figures are correct, it could be more of the same in 2022. Epicenter is the only other horse in the field to . He improved to 5-for-5 this season with a dominant 2 -length victory from just off the pace in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster that resulted in a career-best 123 Equibase Speed Figure and 111 Beyer Speed Figure. . Beyer Figures became part of Daily Racing Form past performances in 1992. She earned an impressive 98 Beyer Speed Figure in that race, the best of any Oaks rival by six points. His strong and consistent 3-year-old form, combined with a lack of depth among the prospective contenders, makes this logical. Since 1992, 27 of 30 Kentucky Derby winners have entered the race with a career-best Beyer speed figure of at least 95. In Picking Winners, Beyer claimed a breakthrough when a study of claiming races at Calder Race Course showed Beyer that 1:13 for six furlongs was equally fast to 1:26.1 at seven; from there, Kovitz's math was used to generate perfectly accurate parallel-time and beaten-lengths charts, which Beyer then used to make par times for classes, against which each race is measured to determine if the track is faster or slower than normal. table.tableizer-table { 97. No one else has topped 96. If their calculations would produce a figure that defies logic (due to a timing error, or a sudden change in the condition of the track, for example) they will assign the race a figure that reflects the true ability of horses in the field. 84. Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. Top Beyer Speed Figures. Medina Spirit posted a 101 Brisnet Speed Rating in last year's Kentucky Derby. [13] In 2007 the highest Beyer Speed Figure was 124 assigned to Midnight Lute in the 7 furlong Forego Handicap at Saratoga Race Course. He has had only three 3 starts and has yet to go beyond 1 1/16 miles. According to the speed figures, Arkansas is the circuit to avoid in this year's Kentucky Derby. Kentucky Derby 2022: Who are the fastest contenders. One of those came from Olympiad, who punched his ticket to the $6 million Longines Breeders Cup Classic with a win in the $740,000 Stephen Foster Stakes July 2 at Churchill Downs. Daily Racing Form provides the top 25 race horses ranked by earnings. Stay up-to-date with the best from America's Best Racing! The Beyer Speed Figures business is a partnership of Beyer and Mark Hopkins. On 2016's Derby trail, the top number was the 103 earned by Exaggerator in his victory in the Santa Anita Derby. In short, there is much reason for optimism as it pertains to Olympiad being effective at 1 miles in the Longines Classic Nov. 5 at Keeneland. Donaldson's Consistent Handicapping Profits (1936), which was cited by Jerry Brown as the method on which the Ragozin and Brown "sheet" figures are based. In two of that year's Kentucky Derby preps, Destin stopped the timer for the 1 1/16 miles of the Tampa Bay Derby in 1:42.82. In 2017 Beyer was given the racing industrys highest honor, the Eclipse Award of Merit, for his lifetime achievements. with a Beyer Speed Figure of 103, best of any contender and second fastest among 3-year-olds this year. These were three of the eight highest figures earned in the 1990s. Belmont Stakes 2022 field and odds. Indy are both major stamina influences as broodmare sires and Olympiads family also produced 1987 Ashland Stakes winner Chic Shirine and 2015 Travers Stakes winner Keen Ice. The system behind the figures was explained in detail and popularized by Andrew Beyers book, Picking Winners, published in 1975. Conversely, a Belmont MSW favorite with a figure of 90 will be formidable.Owners and trainers can employ pars to find proper spots for their horses. The fields for the 14 races that comprise the Breeders Cup World Championships really begin to come into focus in summer and fall, and just last weekend we witnessed several breakout performances. His Brisnet high of 101 is tied with Epicenter. Beyer Speed Figures will sometimes be revised after they are originally published. When considering his chances to excel at 1 miles in the classic, Olympiad gets a nice stamina boost from the bottom half of his pedigree. Nest improved to an 82 Beyer and a 99 Equibase figure in the Suncoast. The bottom of the crop is equivalent in both years, with the lowest top-BSF at 83. Both runners earned their lofty numbers in the Wood Memorial (G2). Its true that Speightsown has sired plenty of quality 2-year-olds and talented sprinters, but hes actually far more versatile than that. Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets: Will Texas Road Slump Continue? When many people see the name of a champion sprinter as a sire, they think his best runners will be fast and precocious. APPLETON - Change can be difficult, but Appleton East guard Sammi Beyer is taking a positive approach to her senior season. With Rich Strike and Zandon defecting, it opens the door for the Derby runner-up to dip below 2-1, which is unusually short for a non-Derby winner. Surprisingly after winning his first career start, selling for $ 1 million at the top race. A career-best Beyer Speed Figures between 105 and 115 of a very process... Recorded since Quality Road earned a 121 in 2011 ) ran his own 102 BSF race in Louisiana... The first published work on creating speed-figures was E.W. t lack for storylines either with Kentucky sensation. Victory in the field 's previous performances handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website for! 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